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固定资产投资增速掉头民间投资寻底引高层重视

来源: 南方日报网络版 ????时间: 2019年09月26日 09:13:17
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(  投)(资)(降)(速)(  在)(经)(历)(了)(短)(暂)(回)(升)(之)(后)(,2016年)(前)(4月)(中)(国)(固)(定)(资)(产)(投)(资)(增)(速)(出)(现)(了)(回)(落)(。其)(中)(,前)(4月)(民)(间)(固)(定)(资)(产)(投)(资)(同)(比)(增)(速)(继)(续)(放)(缓)(,相)(较)(于)(去)(年)(底)(,已)(接)(近)(“腰)(斩)(”。5月)(9日)(《人)(民)(日)(报)(》刊)(登)(的)(“权)(威)(人)(士)(”文)(章)(再)(次)(强)(调)(了)(民)(间)(投)(资)(问)(题)(,文)(章)(称)(要)(更)(好)(激)(发)(非)(公)(经)(济)(和)(民)(间)(投)(资)(活)(力)(,特)(别)(指)(出)(要)(在)(电)(力)(、电)(信)(、交)(通)(、油)(气)(等)(领)(域)(保)(障)(民)(营)(资)(本)(合)(法)(权)(益)(。值)(得)(注)(意)(的)(是)(,“权)(威)(人)(士)(”文)(章)(还)(将)(民)(间)(投)(资)(问)(题)(排)(在)(了)(房)(地)(产)(泡)(沫)(、过)(剩)(产)(能)(、不)(良)(贷)(款)(、地)(方)(债)(务)(、股)(市)(、汇)(市)(、债)(市)(之)(首)(,足)(见)(其)(重)(视)(程)(度)(。  本)(报)(记)(者)(夏)(旭)(田)(北)(京)(报)(道)(  导)(读)(  财)(政)(部)(数)(据)(显)(示)(,目)(前)(各)(地)(政)(府)(已)(推)(出)(7835个)(PPP项)(目)(,总)(投)(资)(额)(约)(8.8万)(亿)(元)(,不)(过)(,这)(些)(PPP项)(目)(落)(地)(率)(约)(为)(21.7%,大)(部)(分)(PPP项)(目)(还)(在)(前)(期)(准)(备)(中)(,其)(中)(民)(间)(资)(本)(参)(与)(项)(目)(少)(是)(一)(大)(问)(题)(。  一)(季)(度)(持)(续)(上)(升)(的)(中)(国)(固)(定)(资)(产)(投)(资)(增)(速)(未)(能)(延)(续)(到)(二)(季)(度)(。  产)(能)(过)(剩)(环)(境)(下)(,制)(造)(业)(投)(资)(长)(期)(面)(临)(下)(滑)(的)(态)(势)(;作)(为)(稳)(增)(长)(的)(重)(要)(力)(量)(,基)(建)(投)(资)(的)(边)(际)(效)(应)(也)(在)(递)(减)(,基)(建)(增)(速)(维)(持)(在)(高)(位)(的)(难)(度)(较)(大)(,两)(者)(叠)(加)(,使)(得)(固)(定)(资)(产)(投)(资)(的)(增)(长)(承)(压)(不)(小)(。  值)(得)(注)(意)(的)(是)(,民)(间)(投)(资)(增)(速)(的)(下)(滑)(依)(然)(在)(持)(续)(,并)(引)(起)(高)(层)(重)(视)(。国)(务)(院)(近)(日)(已)(专)(门)(启)(动)(第)(三)(方)(评)(估)(和)(专)(题)(调)(研)(,以)(激)(发)(民)(间)(投)(资)(潜)(力)(和)(创)(新)(活)(力)(。民)(间)(投)(资)(的)(探)(底)(期)(待)(过)(剩)(产)(能)(的)(出)(清)(、整)(体)(经)(济)(环)(境)(的)(好)(转)(,也)(需)(要)(在)(PPP和)(专)(项)(建)(设)(基)(金)(等)(方)(面)(,为)(民)(资)(的)(参)(与)(创)(造)(更)(多)(条)(件)(。  基)(建)(制)(造)(业)(承)(压)(,投)(资)(回)(升)(未)(持)(续)(  正)(如)(权)(威)(人)(士)(所)(判)(断)(,我)(国)(经)(济)(运)(行)(不)(可)(能)(是)(U型)(,更)(不)(可)(能)(是)(V型)(,而)(是)(L型)(的)(走)(势)(。在)(经)(历)(了)(短)(暂)(回)(升)(之)(后)(,前)(4月)(固)(定)(资)(产)(投)(资)(增)(速)(出)(现)(了)(回)(落)(。国)(家)(统)(计)(局)(最)(新)(数)(据)(显)(示)(,前)(4月)(份)(全)(国)(固)(定)(资)(产)(投)(资)((不)(含)(农)(户)()同)(比)(增)(长)(10.5%,增)(速)(比)(一)(季)(度)(回)(落)(了)(0.2个)(百)(分)(点)(。  国)(家)(信)(息)(中)(心)(经)(济)(预)(测)(部)(主)(任)(祝)(宝)(良)(表)(示)(,1-4月)(固)(定)(资)(产)(投)(资)(数)(据)(整)(体)(还)(是)(比)(较)(稳)(定)(的)(,基)(础)(设)(施)(投)(资)(虽)(有)(回)(落)(,但)(数)(字)(并)(未)(大)(幅)(波)(动)(,房)(地)(产)(投)(资)(略)(涨)(,制)(造)(业)(投)(资)(在)(产)(能)(过)(剩)(影)(响)(下)(出)(现)(回)(落)(都)(是)(预)(料)(之)(中)(的)(。  国)(家)(统)(计)(局)(投)(资)(司)(高)(级)(统)(计)(师)(王)(宝)(滨)(指)(出)(,投)(资)(增)(速)(小)(幅)(回)(落)(主)(要)(受)(制)(造)(业)(和)(基)(础)(设)(施)(投)(资)(增)(速)(回)(落)(的)(影)(响)(。制)(造)(业)(投)(资)(仍)(面)(临)(着)(产)(能)(过)(剩)(、需)(求)(相)(对)(不)(足)(的)(压)(力)(。1-4月)(份)(,制)(造)(业)(投)(资)(增)(长)(6%,增)(速)(比)(一)(季)(度)(回)(落)(了)(0.4个)(百)(分)(点)(。  民)(生)(证)(券)(宏)(观)(分)(析)(师)(朱)(振)(鑫)(认)(为)(,制)(造)(业)(投)(资)(继)(续)(受)(去)(产)(能)(拖)(累)(,仍)(处)(于)(探)(底)(过)(程)(中)(。他)(表)(示)(,3月)(与)(4月)(制)(造)(业)(企)(业)(盈)(利)(边)(际)(的)(改)(善)(并)(没)(有)(转)(化)(为)(投)(资)(的)(反)(弹)(,主)(因)(就)(是)(传)(统)(重)(化)(工)(业)(过)(剩)(产)(能)(未)(实)(质)(性)(退)(出)(,尤)(其)(是)(上)(游)(的)(化)(学)(原)(料)(和)(化)(学)(制)(品)(制)(造)(业)(,后)(者)(前)(4月)(投)(资)(同)(比)(下)(降)(了)(6.4%。  稳)(增)(长)(政)(策)(加)(码)(下)(,基)(建)(投)(资)(成)(为)(稳)(定)(投)(资)(的)(中)(坚)(。在)(统)(计)(局)(公)(布)(的)(三)(大)(产)(业)(各)(项)(分)(类)(数)(据)(中)(,基)(础)(设)(施)(投)(资)(增)(速)(高)(达)(19%,是)(各)(分)(类)(中)(最)(高)(的)(一)(个)(。然)(而)(和)(一)(季)(度)(相)(比)(,基)(建)(的)(同)(比)(增)(速)(也)(出)(现)(了)(小)(幅)(回)(落)(。  数)(据)(显)(示)(,1-4月)(份)(,基)(础)(设)(施)(投)(资)(增)(长)(19%,增)(速)(比)(一)(季)(度)(回)(落)(0.6个)(百)(分)(点)(。其)(中)(公)(共)(设)(施)(管)(理)(业)(投)(资)(增)(长)(28.3%,回)(落)(2.7个)(百)(分)(点)(;水)(利)(管)(理)(业)(投)(资)(增)(长)(23.7%,回)(落)(3.1个)(百)(分)(点)(;生)(态)(保)(护)(和)(环)(境)(治)(理)(业)(投)(资)(增)(长)(31%,回)(落)(1.2个)(百)(分)(点)(。  祝)(宝)(良)(补)(充)(,前)(4月)(交)(通)(基)(建)(方)(面)(的)(投)(资)(增)(速)(也)(影)(响)(了)(固)(定)(资)(产)(投)(资)(增)(速)(:一)(方)(面)(是)(高)(速)(公)(路)(、铁)(路)(建)(设)(和)(去)(年)(相)(比)(,基)(本)(上)(是)(没)(有)(增)(长)(的)(;此)(外)(,地)(铁)(等)(新)(型)(交)(通)(基)(建)(的)(增)(速)(也)(并)(不)(快)(,这)(影)(响)(了)(基)(建)(投)(资)(增)(速)(数)(据)(。  值)(得)(期)(待)(的)(是)(,固)(定)(资)(产)(投)(资)(先)(行)(指)(标)(正)(在)(继)(续)(向)(好)(。  王)(宝)(滨)(介)(绍)(,一)(方)(面)(是)(投)(资)(资)(金)(供)(应)(紧)(张)(状)(况)(有)(所)(缓)(解)(。1-4月)(份)(,投)(资)(到)(位)(资)(金)(增)(长)(8.1%,增)(速)(比)(一)(季)(度)(提)(高)(1.7个)(百)(分)(点)(,连)(续)(两)(个)(月)(回)(升)(,与)(同)(期)(投)(资)(增)(速)(的)(差)(距)(缩)(小)(到)(2.4个)(百)(分)(点)(。另)(一)(方)(面)(,新)(开)(工)(项)(目)(保)(持)(较)(快)(增)(长)(。1-4月)(份)(,新)(开)(工)(项)(目)(计)(划)(总)(投)(资)(增)(长)(38%,虽)(然)(增)(速)(比)(一)(季)(度)(回)(落)(1.5个)(百)(分)(点)(,但)(仍)(保)(持)(了)(年)(初)(以)(来)(的)(高)(速)(增)(长)(态)(势)(,对)(下)(一)(阶)(段)(投)(资)(稳)(增)(长)(有)(一)(定)(的)(支)(撑)(作)(用)(。  祝)(宝)(良)(认)(为)(,未)(来)(固)(定)(资)(产)(投)(资)(增)(速)(有)(望)(保)(持)(一)(个)(平)(稳)(的)(走)(势)(,其)(中)(基)(建)(方)(面)(稳)(增)(长)(的)(手)(段)(仍)(有)(较)(大)(空)(间)(,比)(如)(专)(项)(建)(设)(基)(金)(等)(政)(策)(工)(具)(,撬)(动)(作)(用)(比)(较)(大)(。  但)(他)(认)(为)(,需)(求)(侧)(的)(货)(币)(、财)(政)(政)(策)(的)(边)(际)(效)(应)(正)(在)(递)(减)(,更)(长)(远)(地)(看)(,还)(需)(要)(通)(过)(改)(革)(来)(解)(决)(经)(济)(增)(长)(面)(临)(的)(问)(题)(。  民)(间)(投)(资)(“刹)(车)(”,引)(起)(高)(层)(重)(视)(  值)(得)(注)(意)(的)(是)(,前)(4月)(民)(间)(固)(定)(资)(产)(投)(资)(同)(比)(增)(速)(继)(续)(放)(缓)(,相)(较)(于)(去)(年)(底)(,已)(接)(近)(“腰)(斩)(”。  2015年)(全)(年)(,民)(间)(投)(资)(增)(长)(虽)(然)(也)(放)(缓)(了)(脚)(步)(,但)(仍)(保)(持)(在)(10%以)(上)(的)(较)(高)(增)(长)(水)(平)(。然)(而)(进)(入)(2016年)(,1至)(2月)(份)(的)(数)(据)(从)(2015年)(的)(10.1%径)(直)(下)(降)(到)(6.9%,一)(季)(度)(数)(据)(进)(一)(步)(下)(滑)(至)(5.7%。  最)(新)(数)(据)(显)(示)(,这)(种)(下)(滑)(的)(态)(势)(并)(没)(有)(要)(刹)(车)(的)(意)(思)(,前)(4月)(民)(间)(投)(资)(同)(比)(仅)(增)(长)(5.2%,增)(速)(比)(一)(季)(度)(再)(度)(回)(落)(0.5个)(百)(分)(点)(。与)(此)(同)(时)(,国)(有)(控)(股)(部)(分)(固)(定)(资)(产)(投)(资)(大)(幅)(增)(长)(了)(23.7%。  与)(此)(同)(时)(,民)(间)(投)(资)(占)(全)(国)(固)(定)(资)(产)(投)(资)(的)(比)(重)(也)(连)(续)(出)(现)(下)(滑)(。1至)(4月)(,该)(比)(重)(为)(62.1%,比)(去)(年)(同)(期)(降)(低)(3.2个)(百)(分)(点)(。  关)(于)(民)(间)(投)(资)(下)(滑)(的)(原)(因)(,祝)(宝)(良)(告)(诉)(21世)(纪)(经)(济)(报)(道)(记)(者)(,制)(造)(业)(之)(中)(百)(分)(之)(八)(十)(来)(自)(民)(间)(投)(资)(,而)(制)(造)(业)(普)(遍)(的)(产)(能)(过)(剩)(、需)(求)(不)(足)(抑)(制)(了)(民)(间)(投)(资)(的)(增)(长)(。  其)(次)(,祝)(宝)(良)(表)(示)(,基)(建)(投)(资)(的)(重)(头)(PPP并)(没)(有)(解)(决)(让)(民)(间)(资)(本)(普)(遍)(进)(入)(基)(建)(项)(目)(的)(法)(律)(等)(方)(面)(的)(问)(题)(,加)(上)(PPP项)(目)(投)(资)(周)(期)(一)(般)(较)(长)(,投)(资)(回)(报)(率)(也)(不)(高)(,民)(营)(资)(本)(很)(难)(进)(入)(PPP。  财)(政)(部)(数)(据)(显)(示)(,目)(前)(各)(地)(政)(府)(已)(推)(出)(7835个)(PPP项)(目)(,总)(投)(资)(额)(约)(8.8万)(亿)(元)(,不)(过)(,这)(些)(PPP项)(目)(落)(地)(率)(约)(为)(21.7%,大)(部)(分)(PPP项)(目)(还)(在)(前)(期)(准)(备)(中)(,其)(中)(民)(间)(资)(本)(参)(与)(项)(目)(少)(是)(一)(大)(问)(题)(。  分)(析)(普)(遍)(认)(为)(,目)(前)(中)(国)(需)(要)(更)(高)(层)(级)(的)(法)(律)(和)(规)(范)(来)(约)(束)(、保)(护)(参)(与)(PPP投)(资)(者)(的)(权)(利)(和)(利)(益)(。  5月)(12日)(,国)(家)(发)(改)(委)(发)(言)(人)(赵)(辰)(昕)(在)(记)(者)(会)(上)(提)(出)(,法)(律)(未)(禁)(止)(的)(行)(业)(都)(应)(鼓)(励)(民)(间)(资)(本)(进)(入)(,凡)(是)(中)(国)(政)(府)(已)(向)(外)(资)(开)(放)(或)(承)(诺)(开)(放)(的)(领)(域)(都)(应)(该)(向)(国)(内)(民)(间)(资)(本)(开)(放)(。  PPP之)(外)(,祝)(宝)(良)(表)(示)(,今)(年)(基)(建)(稳)(增)(长)(最)(重)(要)(的)(政)(策)(工)(具)(——专)(项)(建)(设)(基)(金)(也)(将)(大)(部)(分)(民)(资)(排)(除)(在)(外)(。“比)(如)(专)(项)(建)(设)(基)(金)(需)(要)(政)(府)(为)(民)(营)(企)(业)(做)(担)(保)(,这)(一)(工)(具)(在)(设)(计)(上)(的)(问)(题)(导)(致)(民)(营)(资)(本)(也)(很)(难)(进)(入)(这)(个)(基)(金)(。”  王)(宝)(滨)(表)(示)(,受)(市)(场)(需)(求)(疲)(弱)(、企)(业)(投)(资)(愿)(意)(不)(足)(、市)(场)(准)(入)(限)(制)(依)(然)(存)(在)(的)(影)(响)(,今)(年)(初)(以)(来)(民)(间)(投)(资)(增)(速)(持)(续)(回)(落)(。“由)(于)(民)(间)(投)(资)(总)(量)(较)(大)(,增)(速)(持)(续)(回)(落)(将)(会)(制)(约)(投)(资)(平)(稳)(增)(长)(,对)(此)(要)(高)(度)(重)(视)(。”  实)(际)(上)(,民)(间)(投)(资)(的)(下)(滑)(已)(经)(引)(起)(高)(层)(的)(重)(视)(。国)(务)(院)(常)(务)(会)(议)(在)(本)(月)(初)(提)(及)(,要)(对)(促)(进)(民)(间)(投)(资)(政)(策)(落)(实)(情)(况)(开)(展)(专)(项)(督)(查)(,着)(力)(扩)(大)(民)(间)(投)(资)(。  新)(华)(社)(5月)(16日)(报)(道)(称)(,根)(据)(国)(务)(院)(常)(务)(会)(议)(决)(定)(,国)(务)(院)(促)(进)(民)(间)(投)(资)(专)(项)(督)(查)(近)(日)(分)(别)(组)(织)(赴)(有)(关)(省)((区)(、市)()和)(部)(门)(开)(展)(第)(三)(方)(评)(估)(和)(专)(题)(调)(研)(。重)(点)(评)(估)(分)(析)(当)(前)(促)(进)(民)(间)(投)(资)(在)(政)(策)(落)(实)(、政)(府)(管)(理)(服)(务)(和)(投)(资)(环)(境)(等)(方)(面)(存)(在)(的)(问)(题)(和)(典)(型)(做)(法)(并)(开)(展)(相)(关)(调)(研)(,有)(针)(对)(性)(地)(提)(出)(对)(策)(建)(议)(。  祝)(宝)(良)(表)(示)(,民)(间)(投)(资)(何)(时)(见)(底)(,长)(期)(看)(仍)(取)(决)(于)(整)(体)(经)(济)(环)(境)(何)(时)(向)(好)(。民)(间)(投)(资)(不)(同)(于)(政)(府)(投)(资)(和)(国)(有)(企)(业)(投)(资)(,指)(令)(性)(行)(政)(政)(策)(对)(民)(间)(投)(资)(效)(果)(并)(无)(显)(着)(作)(用)(,民)(间)(投)(资)(依)(靠)(的)(是)(投)(资)(人)(对)(经)(济)(形)(势)(、项)(目)(前)(景)(的)(判)(断)(和)(利)(润)(的)(追)(逐)(。民)(间)(投)(资)(的)(探)(底)(,主)(要)(是)(取)(决)(于)(淘)(汰)(过)(剩)(产)(能)(和)(国)(企)(改)(革)(的)(快)(慢)(,同)(时)(也)(可)(以)(通)(过)(完)(善)(PPP的)(各)(项)(制)(度)(加)(以)(推)(动)(。  申)(万)(宏)(源)(首)(席)(宏)(观)(分)(析)(师)(李)(慧)(勇)(认)(为)(,只)(有)(民)(间)(投)(资)(能)(启)(动)(,民)(间)(投)(资)(占)(比)(有)(所)(提)(升)(,才)(能)(够)(说)(明)(中)(国)(经)(济)(真)(正)(的)(复)(苏)(。
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